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Lets talk about Google. Skynet Anyone?

Monday, November 21, 2005

I found this article very intresting -
Everyone right now loves google. They are the internet darling much like Netscape was 10 years ago. They can do no wrong, they can do no evil, and they have a large pile of cash that is almost respectable to what Microsoft has in which to move their company forward. Everyone sees what is going on right now with Google. You have Google Mail and Google Talk, which are both still in Beta. You have their giant colossus of a search engine which is probably on top of over half of all browsers installed in the world. You have Google ads, which mostly generated the 381 million dollars of profit in Q3 of 2005 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4362490.stm). You have Google ads on google's websites and just about any other website you visit will have them listed trying to get a piece of the action.

On top of that you have their little pet projects that are going on in the background. You have Google providing wireless to San Franciso residents. You have Google purchasing up large chunks of Dark Fibre (http://news.com.com/Google+wants+dark+fiber/2100-1034_3-5537392.html). You also have Google providing video now through their website. Top this off with the large scale hammering from email, the scaling to incorporate video from their website, the large infrastructure purchase through aquiring tons of Dark Fibre, something is noticably going on here.

There was an interesting article posted by Robert Cringely (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20051117.html) recently about Google. While I agree with some of it, I do disagree on their large scale intent with all these Betas and acquisitions. You can read his article if you want, but it goes on to say that Google is reportidly to have 64 data centers now compared to just 1 years ago. In theory they could have 300 plus 2 years from now. They are starting to dump these data centers down into bunkers, which it isn't implied but I would imagine run along some of this fibre they picked up. Since they are tapped into this network they probably have access to some of the large POP sites that are providing bandwidth in those areas (since they provided the Fibre or it is running into/through their site). Now they have a closer outpost in which to run their services at faster speeds and at lower latencies.

He goes on to mention that Google is developing the infrastructure where it would have access to their 300 data centers and having peering agreements with ISPs in the area in which to feed audio/video and any other content through their chains since they can easily pass it through Google's fibre back to their 300 data centers to be distributed to another peering site connected through Google. This results in a technoloy that could all but replaced broadcast cable Tv.

He goes on to mention a Co-op work on a online version of an Office appliation (which I will discuss later as a giant key to their success) and then goes on to mention it will lieterally cost google 300 million to essentially co-opt the Internet. Since a lot of these networks that own the fibre are nearing bankruptcy or simply have all this dark fibre they essentially doing nothing, they will be able to buy it up in large quantities and literally because a giant ISP/Bandwidth provider similiar to Level3. Lastly, he mentions that this approach is much like the one Walmart has going on right now. It will literally kill off or marginalize the medium-sized ISPs/providers since it won't be a economical or practical to continue. In the end Web 2.0 would become the Google network.

I would like to expand this more and start harping on what I have been talking about for months. Everything Google is doing clearly points at them being a large scale service provider and the logical first steps are going in order. They start with a simple text based service provider. It quickly grows and grows and they learn how to grow and scale the platform. They develop a giant datacenter and eventually they will grow out of that. They start to introduce webmail now. A good way to learn how to cluster even more more machines together to support petabytes (maybe even exabytes) of data across multiple servers. Now, they start to provide video. This is really a bandwidth/storage challenge to see how they need to properly place servers on a pipe to stream the video in a reliable manner. In order to do so they will need more
datacenters and they will need more bandwidth. Every step they take increases their size and their ability to handle large clusters of machines across multiple datacenters.

Moving on to their next logical step. A world wide application that could be used in a corporate environment. Producing some kind of service for something like Open Office makes a lot of sense. The ability to pull open a document you created anywhere and work on it from any machine is the next step in the service driven internet they are trying to create. This will introduce a lot of new challenges. First, they will have to properly secure their data if they wish for businesses to use this service. Any storage/bandwidth issues should now be taken care of due to all previous experiments, so they are past this hurdle. Now, this is a chance for them also to start doing some more customer service related testing where they could have support for this product. It could be a no-cost option or a service you purchase. Either route they can start setting up call centers and training to properly handle these issues in the future.

The next logical step from there is most likely to produce more web enabled applications that can be run from any computer anywhere. Perhaps they will start some kind of accounting program because they sure are data mining you now. They have what kind of emails you have, where you visit on the website, what you are spending your money on, what you do professionally according to your documents. They probably know more about you than you do. They will continue to grow and scale and building an infrastructure underneith it.

The next step is to start to use this infrastructure in some sort of ISP implication. This could be done during the previous two steps, but they now own one if not that largest chunk of the U.S. network. They could possibly sell some of that off to help offset some costs. They by now are probably the largest or one of the largest bandwidth providers/users out there and most likely not using it to the full potential. Again, this is a good test/trial for the next step ahead.

The next step of course is some sort of operating system. This could be 3-10 years down the road from now depending on how fast they move. It would of course be all web based. You literally fire up any computer in the world and it will start to boot your configuration up. A good example of how this could or might work is a company called Ardence (http://www.ardence.com). Think of Ghost on steroids. It has the ability to PXE boot Windows XP without a hard drive. It might only pull down 180-200MB of data (in now terms that is a lot of bandwidth, but time the giant google pipes are in we might have 100Mb down) we will practically be sitting in an internal network configuration. This application will pull down the essentials for the OS and stream an application down everytime you run it. The Google OS will be something similiar to that. It will simply boot the core and load anything on demand as it goes. You will be able to choose a list of Google approved applications and perhaps other applications not improved. It will load everything in a modular fashion where if something doesn't work correctly it would just strip out the unapproved applications on next boot. You will have the choice of saving to the Google network, or if you have a hard drive you can save to it. If you save to the Google network it will be accessable from anywhere and it can probably find ways to make secure connections to your local harddrive too.

They will of course give this out for free in certain flavors. They might even give away free systems that use part of the computer for processing and disk storage. Imagine millions of computer acting like bots storing information that is passing through their own lines. It will be smart enough to know to store data in a regional area so it would be pulling central Illinois data from central Illinois area. They could essentially lessen their need for large Data Centers to some point since the machines will be handling a lot of the load by themselves. Even if you don't pay for the OS or pay for the hardware, you will still be paying for the pipe to connect to their network, so they are getting money from everyone. Everyone is using their services, all data is flowing through their network. All of this from a small company that could do no wrong or evil.

This next decade is not going to be about Open Source versus Microsoft or Microsoft versus Apple. It is going to be about just how fast Google can move as a company. Google is the size of a tank that can move like a small European car. Most companies that size are the size of a tank and can move like a tank. For a mere $300 million Google will be able to effectively purchase the infrastructure of the U.S. internet and create the next network that the U.S. will run on. After that I am sure they will move on to Europe and other counties. Everyone take the time to bow down to your new overlords and sign into the Google Skynet.

--Josh
[Original Article]




I think google will be the biggets IT company in coming years..    

By Anonymous aarti on 11/22/2005 05:08:00 PM

interesting blog.    


Thanx.............................. :)    


best regards, nice info
» »    

By Anonymous Anonymous on 8/27/2006 02:15:00 AM


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